Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Bottom Reached Recovery or Stagnation for Housing

The Springfield Illinois housing market heated up during the coolest July on record with sales pending up substantially over a year ago. Preliminary sales reports by member brokers of the Capital Area Association of Realtors show July could finish up for the second monthly increase in a row. August closings based on current sales pending could produce a three month run for increased home sales. But where will the market go from here?





What has caused the increase in sales activity? Low interest rates combined with the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers, with time running out on the credit. One wonders what would have happened across the nation if the $15,000 tax credit for all home buyers would have been approved in the stimulus bill, however was axed in conference by Pelosi.





Davis Twiddy of the AP reports that the worst may be over for the housing market and the bottom may have been reached. Or could this be a dead cat bounce? Twiddy reports $4 trillion in home equity has been wiped out, millions have lost their homes in foreclosure, from the peak to the trough home sales fell 38%, new home sales fell 76%, construction of new homes and apartments fell 79%, and home prices fell 33%. One would like to believe this would constitute a bottom.





Consumer confidence and jobs are key to housing sales. With consumer confidence falling in July, and unemployment rising; the proof of the power of the tax credit is evident, in an otherwise hard to explain jump in home sales.





What government actions are taken will determine whether the housing market will stagnate or recover in the final months of 2009 and into 2010.





The main stream media was giddy this week reporting the 1% drop in GDP in the second quarter, as lower than expected. How can a contracting economy be described as good news? Some experts declared the recession over, while others say the recession ends in the fourth quarter. Economists also predict that this will be a jobless recovery with unemployment expected to have risen to 9.7% in July, and then to 10% by the end of the year. As Twiddy concluded; people without jobs don't buy houses.





In Illinois, governor Quinn announced budget cuts of $1 billion, said delays in payments to vendors will increase beyond the 200 days it now takes to get paid, and that 2600 state workers will be laid off. Not to mention the 12 furlough days that will trim over two weeks pay from state workers lucky enough to keep their jobs. Or the $600 million slashed from employee, and retiree health insurance payments. This will surely boost consumer confidence within the ranks of the tens of thousands of state employees.





So what actions are being undertaken by our government that will determine whether the economy will stagnate or recover? They want to raise taxes. If you want less of something tax it.





First a look at increases proposed by congress at the direction of the Obama Administration. Cap and Trade which will increase the cost of living for every man, woman, and child in the country. The price of gas, electricity, food, clothing, and everything manufactured will go up. Less disposable income to be spent in the private sector. Fewer major purchases, like homes.





Next health care reform. The CBO says the reform proposed has a price tag of $1.2 trillion. How has the congress proposed paying for this behemoth takeover of the health care industry? Cut Medicare by half a trillion, a 5.4% income tax surcharge on upper bracket tax payers (constituted mostly by small businesses), employer mandated health coverage or pay 8% of wages in penalties, and for the individual a 2% tax penalty to the IRS on their income if they don't purchase health insurance.





Now a look at the state proposals. The governor wants a 50% income tax increase to 4.5%, the senate voted for a 67% increase to 5%, while the house voted down a tax increase.





Before looking at the economic impact of the aforementioned attacks on the incomes of business and individuals, consider the following; it was reported this week the national deficit has exceeded the GDP for the first time in history. The deficit now stands at 110% of GDP. The CBO predicts this overwhelming debt will cause the economy to shrink as the annual interest payment will approach $1 trillion by 2019. Think of a trillion dollars needed from taxpayers, being sucked out of the private sector, just to make the interest payment.





Now think of the impact of adding to the deficit the proposed health care reform, and the back door tax created in cap and trade. Not to mention the destruction of the private health insurance industry adding to the unemployment rolls, and under cap and trade the elimination of two fossil fuel jobs for every green job created. People without jobs not only don't buy houses, they don't pay taxes either. Add in higher state income taxes if passed. Do you think this combination of proposals, higher taxes with fewer jobs, will help the economy to recover, or to stagnate?





What actions should government take? I would propose defeating health care reform as proposed, defeating cap and trade in the senate, and hold the line on state income taxes.





At the federal level I would propose a moratorium on capital gains taxes for three years. Money would flood into private markets. Cut corporate taxes by 50% for three years so companies can have the money to expand employment. Freeze individual income tax rates which would provide certainty for families, increasing consumer confidence.





The progressives in power and liberals would say this is just the failed policies of the past. No, that's a lie. These are historically proven revenue generation policies. The failed policy of the past, and today is when the government spends more than it takes in. Both Democrats and Republicans are guilty as charged.





If you want more of something, in this case more revenue for the government, then cut taxes. It has worked every time since the income tax was added to the constitution in 1913. Under Coolidge, Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush (II). Following tax cuts revenues increased to the government. More people working, means more people paying taxes.





The bounce in home sales resulted from the $8,000 tax credit, combined with low interest rates. What happens when the tax credit expires on November 30? What happens when inflation takes hold and interest rates go up?





Raise taxes, pass cap and trade, health care reform as proposed, and the economy will be lucky just to be stagnant. Recovery in the housing market will be slow at best, and unattainable at worst.





Picture a family that earns $50,000 a year running up $55,000 in credit card debt. What are their chances for a quick recovery? Now you have a clear picture of what government is doing to your family today, and to future generations.


Fritz Pfister is a Realtor with RE/MAX Professionals Springfield IL. and a leader in the local real estate market hosting a one hour radio program, now in its' 14th year. With over 2000 real estate sales, Fritz is recognized as a housing market expert.


Fritz's website is


SpringfieldHome.com

economic stimulus package: recovery plan

economic stimulus package: economic stimulus package

Article Source: www.articlesnatch.com

Turn Your Financial Situation Around With Debt Consolidation

Debt for many is like a beast that refuses to leave irrespective of how much you attempt to escape it. It can fully bring down your whole way of life and force you to do things that you never would have done. Your personal fiscal situation can be seriously changed at the face of mounting debt. During these times of economic slump, you should focus upon lowering and dumping your debt as soon as possible.





There are many ads online about folks who can make your debt depart just like that. Never fall for these tricks. It is crucial that you take matters in to your own hands and stay informed. These folks regularly have 'counselors' who sound like doomsday prophets.





They're going to give you blown up figures and tell you very gravely that you need 2 life times to repay your debt. But they will help you clear it in two years. Don't hear them and do not believe them for a single moment.





If your debt situation is beyond control, you can look into a strategy called Debt Consolidation. The concept behind debt consolidation is straightforward. You consolidate or gather up your total debt and start to make one single huge payment each month.





You shouldn't do this thru unknown institutions that want to 'help you out'. You also should not select balance transfers to other institutions who send you free checks for money. They will not keep their promise of low interest.





Instead, you should take out a mortgage or personal loan to pay down the multiple small liabilities that you have. However, before you take this step, sit down with a calculator and figure out what kind of time and money you will be spending in paying down the debt at your current pace.





Then you have got to figure out how much loan you will need to repay the debt faster. Then you have got to compare to determine which one costs you more time and money.





Debt consolidation has multiple benefits. Rather than paying multiple IRs, you are paying only 1 interest rate. You do not have to maintain a tally of multiple cut offs and rules. So the possibilities of late fees and calculation mistakes are less.





It is way easier to keep track of a single monthly payment with one fixed/floating rate. Multiple rates customarily mean that you are paying a higher rate of interest than you have to. If a time comes when you understand that you are now not paying the principle but only the interest, it may be time to consolidate your debt.





You can also reduce the amount of payments through debt settlement. Banks will generally agree to accept a lower amount in lieu of the debt if your account has a large amount of late charges and interest piled up in it. This way you can pay off your debts one at a time and reclaim your monetary independence.


BadCreditLoanCenter is the Internet's leading resource for debt consolidation and loans for people with bad credit finance information.

economic stimulus package: economic stimulus package

economic stimulus package: recovery plan

Article Source: www.articlesnatch.com